For all its recent difficulties, private equity still has plenty going for it—not least an estimated $400 billion of uninvested capital. True, the credit-fuelled mega-deals of old are unlikely to return soon. Deals will be mostly financed with equity rather than debt, which means that private-equity groups will need to improve the fundamentals of the businesses they buy rather than just profiting from financial engineering. The first area to see an increase in dealmaking is likely to be “roll-ups”, in which firms already backed by private equity will consolidate fragmented industries by buying small competitors from their troubled owners. However, for the big private-equity firms like KKR, the greatest opportunity may come in diversifying. Already KKR has raised money to invest in distressed securities and infrastructure development. It may also see a chance to snap up stakes in other private-equity firms through the fast-growing secondary market for limited partnerships. It also has an advisory business, and is said to see an opportunity in helping firms raise capital. With the investment-banking industry a shadow of its former self, could it be that the future of the newly public KKR, along with Blackstone and maybe others, will be to become increasingly like, and competitive with, Goldman Sachs?
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